The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a R70 billion (US$4.3 billion) loan for South Africa to help the country manage the immediate consequences of the fallout from COVID-19. The Conversation Africa’s editor, Caroline Southey, asked Danny Bradlow to shed some light on what South Africans should expect.
What conditions has the IMF attached to the disbursement?
The IMF has provided the funding through its Rapid Financing Instrument. This is designed to support countries facing an urgent need for financing due to a crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The goal is to help the country face the immediate financial consequences of the crisis. As a result the IMF provides the financing quickly and without strict conditions. The country merely needs to show the IMF that it is facing a crisis, that it will use the funds to deal with the crisis, that it will cooperate with the IMF to solve the balance of payments problems caused by the crisis and to describe the economic policies that it proposes to follow.
In some cases, the IMF may require the country to undertake certain policy actions before it can access the funds.
In South Africa’s case, the country’s payments problem relates to the fact that the economy is expected to contract by about 7% this year and the budget deficit to increase to about 15% of GDP. This means that the government will need to increase the amount it has to borrow. Given that it has been downgraded by credit rating agencies, and that the economy is in bad shape, there is a substantial risk that both local and foreign investors will have a limited appetite for South African debt. This will complicate the government’s efforts to finance the deficit.
The IMF loan helps resolve this problem.