The steep rout in eastern European currencies is raising speculation among market strategists that policymakers will have to slow their plans to ease monetary policy.
The Polish currency dropped 0.3% against the euro, extending its decline to 3.4% in the past week after a bigger-than-expected rate cut roiled markets. With Hungary already months into an easing cycle and the Czech Republic weighing when it should embark on its own, the three countries led losses across emerging markets.
Last week’s 75 basis-point rate cut in Poland, which was three times larger than expected, sparked the selloff as it raised questions about the central bank’s determination to curb inflation weeks before parliamentary elections. The move was “premature” because of persistent inflation, central banker Przemyslaw Litwiniuk told TVN24 television in an interview Monday.
Bank of America strategists on Tuesday closed a long euro-zloty position as they expect authorities will step in to bolster the currency, “via verbal, direct interventions or liquidity management,” strategists led by Mikhail Liluashvili wrote in a note.
The extent of the decline appears to have put also some policymakers on notice. What happened to the zloty is a clear signal about how such rate decisions can impact the central bank’s credibility, another member of the Polish Monetary Policy Council Ludwik Kotecki told reporters on Tuesday.
In the Czech Republic, board member Jan Prochazka said in an interview for E15 newspaper that his central bank must avoid cutting interest rates too soon as underlying inflationary pressures are still “very strong.”