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  • South Africa heads for coalition government

    Uncertain times for South Africa’s foreign policy as country heads for coalition government

    Bhaso Ndzendze, University of Johannesburg

    After South Africa’s 29 May election, the African National Congress has lost the electoral majority it held for 30 years, but remains the party with the highest number of seats in parliament. This makes it a key partner in the formation of a coalition government.

    For 30 years the ANC had a comfortable majority which allowed it to shape policy at home and abroad. The outgoing administration’s approach to foreign policy became more assertive recently. It sought to negotiate peace in the Russia-Ukraine War and filed a genocide case at the International Court of Justice against Israel’s invasion of Gaza. Though popular, the move against Israel may have split South Africans, some of whom are more concerned about the economy, while others support Israel.

    With 40% of the national parliamentary seats, the ANC will have to negotiate its policy positions with its coalition partner, or partners. The three leading contenders to partner the ANC are the Democratic Alliance, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party and the Economic Freedom Fighters. The parties lie second, third and fourth in terms of parliamentary seats.

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    As a political scientist who has researched the nexus between South Africa’s electoral politics and its engagement with the changing global order, I expect South Africa’s foreign policy to be one of the bargaining points as the ANC engages various potential coalition partners.

    This is significant because over the past three decades, the international community has come to know where South Africa stands on major geopolitical questions. In particular, the country has been a key player in the realignment of global power, partly through its membership of the Brics grouping – Brazil, Russia India, China and South Africa. As of 1 January 2024, five new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) had joined Brics.

    South Africa has also sought to be a voice for Africa and the broader global south. This is especially since the COVID-19 pandemic, when it spoke out against what it termed vaccine apartheid.

    Based on electoral performance, the likeliest coalition partners for the ANC are, respectively, the Democratic Alliance (DA), with 21.7% of the vote, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) with 14.66% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) with 9.47%.

    I have gauged how they might seek to influence the direction of foreign policy by looking at their party manifestos and leader statements. From this analysis the ANC seems faced with three broad choices: a Democratic Alliance that is pro-west, an Economic Freedom Fighters party that is more revisionist than the ANC itself, and an uMkhonto weSizwe Party that largely reflects the ANC’s own foreign policy posture but vehemently opposes the ANC’s current leader and has contributed to the ANC’s fall below 50%.

    Democratic Alliance

    The two issues that are most likely to be a sticking point for the Democratic Alliance are the ANC government’s attitude towards Israel and its relationship with Russia.

    In its election manifesto, the Democratic Alliance lists seven priorities. All are domestic issues. Nevertheless, statements by its leaders and parliamentarians point to a party that is decidedly pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia. It’s moderate on Israel and sceptical of the Brics grouping.

    Following the 2023 Brics summit in South Africa in August 2023, Emma Louise Powell, the Democratic Party’s shadow foreign minister, criticised the grouping, calling it an “increasingly unholy alliance”, and the summit a waste of money.

    The party’s leader John Steenhuisen also visited Ukraine and expressed solidarity with Kiev.

    On the Israel/Palestine issue the party removed an MP from its shadow cabinet for expressing a pro-Palestine stance. And Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen refuses to call Israel’s conduct of its war on Gaza an act of genocide, saying:

    One man’s genocide is another man’s freedom.

    uMkhonto weSizwe Party and Economic Freedom Fighters

    In its manifesto, the Economic Freedom Fighters party champions greater continental integration. This includes free movement of people.

    Further afield, it not only supports Palestinians but also advocates giving weapons to Hamas, according to its leader, Julius Malema.

    The uMkhonto weSizwe Party’s manifesto is more moderated. It envisions a government that would

    ensure South Africa’s foreign policy reflects its national interests and values, advocating for fairness and mutual respect in international relations.

    The manifesto expresses solidarity with Russia, Cuba and Palestine

    in their struggles against western imperialist forces.

    The party also calls for a review of international accords and agreements, including South Africa’s membership of the International Criminal Court – ostensibly to reinstate South Africa’s sovereignty.

    It also calls on South Africa to

    work with the Brics countries to explore alternative currencies and international settlement mechanisms.

    This alignment of the ANC should come as no surprise. Much of the ANC’s current foreign policy (including the entry into Brics) was crafted under Jacob Zuma as president (2009-2018). In its appraisal of the Cyril Ramaphosa government’s foreign policy, however, the party is scathing.

    Its manifesto states that

    The current government seems intent on destroying our tradeable sector and reducing our country to total external dependence on the west.

    This may also explain why some of its leading figures have declared they would not form a coalition with the ANC under the leadership of Zuma’s nemesis, Ramaphosa. The statement still leaves the door open for a coalition with the ANC should it decide to recall Ramaphosa.

    The country, therefore, would see more foreign policy continuity under an ANC-uMkhonto weSizwe Party coalition, while there would be major stability-threatening disagreements within an ANC-Democratic Alliance or ANC-Economic Freedom Front government.

    This is especially important considering that foreign policy is no longer made by the Department of International Relations and Cooperation alone. Virtually every government department has a foreign affairs desk.

    This decentralisation of foreign policy also means that there might be considerable disagreement even if the ANC were to manage to keep the department for itself.

    The Demoractic Alliance and the ANC have disagreed before when the alliance’s Solly Msimanga, then a newly elected mayor of the city of Tshwane, visited Taiwan in December 2016. The ANC, which recognises China’s claim of sovereignty over the island, expressed its discontent with the visit and its Tshwane caucus called it treason“.

    In a national coalition government, such moves would bring instability.

    Domestic and foreign policies

    Domestic policy is also important for foreign engagement. The election outcome is not only about South Africa’s relationship towards the world, but also the outside world’s perception of the country.

    The ANC government has in recent years struggled to attract foreign direct investment (declining by R54.5 billion or about US$2.9 billion in 2023, according to the Reserve Bank), in part due to corruption, power outages, and a perceived lack of competitiveness born of its post-1994 racial equity and labour laws.

    The ANC’s choice of coalition partner will have an impact on this. If it gets into bed with the Democratic Alliance, it will be signalling a pro-market stance. If, however, it joins up with the smaller parties, it will likely result in a renewed emphasis on policies that drive greater equity in the country.The Conversation

    Bhaso Ndzendze, Associate Professor (International Relations), University of Johannesburg

    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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  • Clearer labels aim to help South Africans pick healthy foods

    Bad food choices: clearer labels aim to help South Africans pick healthier options

    Safura Abdool Karim, Johns Hopkins University; Makoma Bopape, University of Limpopo; Rina Swart, University of the Western Cape, and Tamryn Frank, University of the Western Cape

    South Africans have a hard time figuring out which foods are unhealthy when they go shopping. But this is about to change.

    South African supermarkets currently sell large amounts of unhealthy, ultra-processed foods. Packaged foods in particular have high levels of sugar, salt and saturated fat – all things that are bad for our health.

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    Research shows that the consumption of these foods is linked to increasing rates of obesity and related diseases such as diabetes.

    Many countries have been looking for better labelling systems which help consumers understand whether a product is unhealthy. Countries that have adopted simpler labelling systems have seen consumers making healthier choices about food.

    South Africa’s health minister published draft food labelling regulations in April. These will introduce a new labelling scheme, limit advertising of unhealthy foods, and restrict the use of misleading health claims.

    The draft regulations propose clearer food labels, which include a new triangle highlighting that the food contains ingredients that are unhealthy. These logos will be placed on the front of a product.

    We are part of the working group that advised the Department of Health on front-of-package nutrition labelling, drawing on our expertise in dietetics, nutrition, public health and the law.

    We worked with consumers and experts on food labelling, advertising and obesity prevention to create a system designed to work well in South Africa.

    But it was a complicated process. This is how we did it.

    How do we know which food is unhealthy?

    The first step is to find a way to identify unhealthy foods. There are international guidelines on how much sugar, salt and saturated fat people should be eating. These can be used to measure whether a food has too much of these ingredients.

    Figuring out whether a food is unhealthy can be tricky, but luckily, other countries around the world have adopted systems like this before, known as nutrient profile models, and we could build on what they had already done.

    We looked at what foods were being sold in South African supermarkets. We searched for nutrient profiling models that identify unhealthy foods and work well in other countries and tested these on the South African food supply.

    We found that the Chilean model, which focuses only on unhealthy ingredients, sugar, sodium and saturated fat, would work well because it was simple to implement and was able to identify unhealthy products very easily and accurately.

    We then modified the Chilean model to make it work for South Africa.

    Choosing the right label

    The next thing to decide was what kind of label South Africa should use. There are lots of different systems but not all work well.

    One uses colour coding. For example, a low level of salt would get a green marker while high sugar would get a red one.

    There are also descriptive labels which don’t tell consumers whether the amounts are good or bad – just whether they are present.

    Then there are warning labels, often shaped like traffic signs, to alert consumers to the high levels of unhealthy ingredients such as saturated fat, sugar and salt.

    We looked at how to design a label that would be understandable to the average South African. We consulted South Africans on each element of the label, from the wording and size to the symbols and colour.

    We developed a black triangle – inspired by a danger warning sign – which would stand out on colourful food packages and included pictures so that anyone, even those who can’t read or speak English, would be able to understand them.

    The last part of this work was a nationally representative randomised, control trial of different labelling systems. Almost 2,000 people across different income groups and education levels participated.

    We also found that the warning labels led to consumers changing their minds about what food they would consider buying.

    Earlier this year, South Africans had the opportunity to give comments on the regulations that will see this labelling system implemented. Now it’s up to the department to decide when and how to put these regulations into action.

    Hopefully soon all South Africans will be able to see at a glance which foods are bad for their health.The Conversation

    Safura Abdool Karim, Postdoctoral fellow, Johns Hopkins University; Makoma Bopape, Lecturer in Department of Human Nutrition and Dietetic, University of Limpopo; Rina Swart, Professor, University of the Western Cape, and Tamryn Frank, Researcher, University of the Western Cape

    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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  • SA deadliest storm kills more than 300

    Residents of Quarry Road informal settlement wash their clothes as others rebuild their home in Durban on Thursday following the devastating rains and flooding.

     

    Torrential rains had taken hold over the KwaZulu-Natal Province in South Africa, and now the damage and death toll is now into international focus.

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    Many people are still missing, while about 300 have been declared dead.

     

    Some people commented that this is the deadliest storm ever to hit South Africa.

     

    The chaos began due to widespread flash and river flooding, which led to infrastructure destruction.

     

    Bridges, cell towers, and water treatment facilities have been destroyed.

     

    It has been reported that the worst of the flooding and landslides happened along South Africa’s east coast.

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