Another day, another slew of polls to consider. Thursday offered another 11 polls from eight states with a couple of backdated New Hampshire(!) polls thrown in for good measure. None of it change the overall tally, but it did push a couple of Biden toss up states into the Lean Biden category. Pennsylvania is no stranger to that change, having flip-flopped back and forth across the Lean/Toss up line frequently in recent days. But New Hampshire has been (unconvincingly) mired in the Biden toss up group of states since the beginning, begging for any update that might bring it in line with states that finished around it in November 2016. Now the update is in, and New Hampshire is a toss up no longer.
Elsewhere…
Polling Quick Hits:
Florida (Biden 50, Trump 46):
Mason-Dixon went into the field in the Sunshine state for the first time this year and found Joe Biden at the 50 percent mark and up by four. Neither datapoint strays too far from where the majority of Florida polling has been over the last half of July. But Biden was ahead of his FHQ average of support by about a point and a half while Trump overperformed his average by about 2.5 points.
New Hampshire (Biden 53, Trump 40):
While New Hampshire has been a Biden toss up since FHQ began these updates in mid-June, it was lack of polling that kept the Granite state there rather than any new polling. Adding in the May, June and July numbers from the University of New Hampshire colored the state a darker shade of blue. Trump held the same two point advantage in May that he had in February in the UNH poll, but saw that lead vanish under a seeming avalanche of support for Biden over the last two months. [Biden was basically +10 over that time while Trump lost around six points.] The former vice president held commanding 13 point leads in both, and on the weight of those polls, Biden’s advantage in the Granite state ballooned enough to push it into Lean Biden territory.
North Carolina (Trump 48, Biden 47):
A week and a half after it was last in the field in the Tar Heel state, Cardinal Point Analytics was back with another survey of the state. The picture looked about the same: Trump narrowly ahead on rosiest end of the spectrum of recent North Carolina polls. That did little to move the state from the consistent lead Biden has had in the FHQ averages (between Biden +1 and 2 points)
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