News broke yesterday that the Nigerian nominee for the post of World Trade Organisation (WTO) Director-General, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iwaeala has emerged the favorite for the post after securing the majority support.
According to the report, 104 member countries have backed Okonjo-Iweala so far out of the total of 164 members that make up the WTO. Obviously, even if the remaining 60 member countries decide not to vote for her, she has already won having secured majority support.
That was why many Nigerians and others who are backing Okonjo-Iwaeala joined in celebrating her when the news broke that she has emerged the first African and first female DG of WTO. With that, Nigeria and other countries in Africa hope for a favorable future in the WTO and trade relations with other countries.
However, there is a threatening side to the story which could change things. Yes, this was when the news broke that the United States of America is strongly opposing the emergence of Okonjo-Iweala. Obviously, the US prefers the South Korean nominee Yoo Myung-hee for the job instead of Okonjo-Iweala. Myung-hee is from South Korea which is a strong and loyal ally of the US.
The US is heavily backing Myung-hee for the WTO DG job. This is for the reasons best known to the country. But, some reasons that are already clear is that Myung-hee’s country, South Korea is a strong all of the US. Also, China is subtly backing Okonjo-Iweala. China is a strong rival of the US especially on trade and political issues. Definitely, the US will oppose whoever China is backing. In this case, China is backing Okonjo-Iweala and it could be another reason why the US is strongly opposing her.
The US has veto power to stand against Okonjo-Iweala’s emergence through the consensus of the member countries. The consensus is one of the major ways through which the WTO DG could emerge. Already, the US has vetoed that method because it is heavily opposing Okonjo-Iweala’s emergence despite the fact that she is also a US citizen as well as a Nigerian.
What the US can do to stop Okonjo-Iweala before November 9
The US can use strict measures to get what it wants. Since the consensus arrangement cannot work because the US vetoed it, then voting will take place on November 9 and the DG will emerge by securing simple majority votes of member countries. The US has many allies and it could pressurize them to vote against Okonjo-Iweala. When the US wants to achieve such goals, it dangles two options to her allies and other poorer countries. One option is to dangle juicy deals that the countries will enjoy if they do what the US wants them to do so that it will have its way. It could be huge cash grants, juicy contracts, favorable multi-lateral deals that the countries will enjoy from the US government. That is the carrot approach.
On the other hand, the US dangles likely punishments the countries will face if they fail to do what it tells them to do. The US makes it clear that the countries that fail to vote according to its directive will face strict trade sanctions, unfavorable legislation/policies, termination of any grants, and financial aids the US gives them among other strict sanctions. This is the stick approach the US normally adopts when it wants to pressurize some of her allies and other weaker countries to toe its line of action and vote in support of it to achieve its aim.
So, between now and November 9, the US government under the leadership of the bold and vocal Donald Trump would do the needful in pressurizing other countries to back it in opposing Okonjo-Iweala’s emergence. It may not be very easy for the US because China is equally strong and has many allies too.
But, it does not stop the US from trying to know if it can succeed in pressurizing many other countries to vote against Okonjo-Iweala with the aim of helping South Korean Myung-hee to clinch the top job. Okonjo-Iweala needs God’s grace and the strong backing of the majority of the member countries who will need to defy US pressure to still vote her to emerge victorious on November 9.