According to information reaching out from the Middle East, Lebanon-based Hezbollah joining the war would dramatically escalate the Middle East’s worst conflict in decades — raising the likelihood of mass civilian casualties in Israel and Lebanon and possibly drawing in the U.S.
The Israeli military — now focused mostly on Gaza — would have a significantly more difficult time fighting on two fronts simultaneously while missiles rain down on its bases and Israel’s population centers.
State of play: Since the Gaza war began October 7th, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have been increasing. There have been daily skirmishes between the parties along the Israel-Lebanon border.
Iran-backed Hezbollah has fired rockets and anti-tank missiles at Israeli outposts and forces on the border in recent days, while Israeli airstrikes have hit Hezbollah positions. Several Hezbollah operatives and several IDF soldiers have been killed.
At the same time, both sides have managed to keep the exchange of fire on a relatively low level, avoiding all-out fighting. How long can they manage this?
Hezbollah so far has refrained from sending its operatives for a ground assault or from firing its long-range, accurate missiles at Israeli targets.